NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on -- it's a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I'll revisit these in August before the season begins, but we'll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I'm using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let's break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here:
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we're picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let's get to it.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Over 11.5 (+105) / Under 11.5 (-125)
No surprise to see the 49ers match the Chiefs with the highest win total in the NFL, albeit with a juiced under. The 49ers have the best roster but some question marks linger, including the status of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Ricky Pearsall is in the fold and Jawuan Jennings just got reupped. I would guess everyone is back for 2024 as the Niners go all in, but there's some fragility to the roster that you can really only erase by having someone like Patrick Mahomes on your team. Two of the Niners' three playoff games were one-score games (2-1 with a VERY tough loss) but in the regular season they actually went 2-3 and mostly dominated teams. San Francisco underperformed its win expectancy and still won 12 games. The Niners catch the AFC East and NFC North along with the Chiefs, Cowboys and Buccaneers this year, so it's not an easy schedule. But this team remains loaded -- you won't catch a 10.5 on Kyle Shanahan's squad, but you won't catch me taking the under on this team at any point either.
Pick: 49ers Over 11.5 (+105)
Los Angeles Rams
Over 8.5 (-140) / Under 8.5 (+120)
This is a best bet. Aaron Donald retiring hurts for sure. But the Rams have just selected a first-round pick for the first time since Jared Goff. Think about that! With their first they grabbed Jared Verse then added Braden Fiske in combo to try and recreate some lesser percentage of the greatest defensive player in NFL history. If it works, the defense won't drop off as much as some might expect. (Kobie Turner is being SLEPT on somehow.) The offense could really cook with the additions on the offensive line and Puka Nacua having another year under his belt. People are weirdly writing off Cooper Kupp. Blake Corum gives them a doppleganger backup to Kyren Williams. L.A. gets the Raiders, Eagles and Saints in cross-divisional matchups, which is fairly choice all things considered. If they can start hot before an early bye, I think they have a real good chance to win the division. The underlying metrics in terms of point differential and one-score games aren't great but reasonably average. I trust Sean McVay implicitly -- everyone got hurt in his one bad year and the world tried to send him to the announcing booth. The Rams are a 10-win team in 2024 barring a complete rash of injuries.
Pick: Rams Over 8.5 (-140)
Seattle Seahawks
Over 7.5 (-120) / Under 7.5 (+100)
This is a fun, interesting team for 2024. Pete Carroll never got enough credit for how good a coach he was, but there's a decent chance Mike Macdonald is his perfect successor. He and John Schneider showed up to a draft press conference in gas station attendant uniforms because they were going full blue collar. I might dress up as Schneider for Halloween, but as a gas station attendant. A small portion of the population will get it and I'm OK with that. But Pete constantly coached this team up above its expectations and Macdonald has to do it in his first year in a very tough division with a pretty tough schedule -- a hot start is paramount or else the Seahawks will be fighting uphill all year long. It's real easy to like the offense if Ryan Grubb's Washington offense translates to the NFL (you can do Harbaugh math where Macdonald has seen/heard good things about it) and Macdonald maxes out his defensive personnel. It's amazing how the Seahawks rebooted the entire franchise on the back of the Russell Wilson trade. Geno Smith isn't it ... but he might be it? ... at least for a year or two? The receiving corps is loaded, the running backs are stout, the offensive line is improved. If the defense picks up Macdonald's scheme in the first year there is a legit ceiling here. I wouldn't want to be on the under personally.
Lean: Seahawks Over 7.5 (-120)
Arizona Cardinals
Over 6.5 (-150) / Under 6.5 (+125)
Wanted to make it a clean sweep here but the price tag is just too expensive to take the over. Jonathan Gannon won four games in his first season while missing Kyler Murray for most of the year and catching a bunch of bad breaks. This team was real frisky early on and looked competent offensively for much of the year. The Cardinals went 2-5 in one-score games and underperformed their win expectancy by a full game and a half last year. They've now gone out and done a ton of work in the offseason, most notably adding Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth pick in the draft. Trey Benson in the third round was a sneaky scoop. The future first they got from the Texans ended up being much lower than they expected, but Darius Robinson is a decent consolation prize. The defense was near the bottom in terms of points allowed last year and has nowhere to go but up this season. I think the coaching here is good. The schedule is BRUTAL to start -- Arizona opens up at the Bills, gets the Rams, Lions and Commanders at home then travels to San Francisco and Green Bay to start. If the Cards split those, they'll cash this over I think. But they'll probably need to beat two of the Chargers, Bears and Jets at home before the bye as well. The schedule gets a little lighter on the back end (hey Panthers and Patriots!) but features four divisional games in their final seven stretch. If it were cheaper, I'd go over here.
Lean: Cardinals Under 6.5 (+125)
