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  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +935
    (81%)
    13-3 in Last 16 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    D. Garland
    Under 27.5
    -117
    PTS + AST
    Picked: Dec 24 @ 1:23pm

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. Darius Garland is under this combined line in 10 of 14 games he’s played with Donovan Mitchell this season. The Knicks are tougher on pick and roll scorers (11th fewest points allowed), and also permit the ninth fewest assists per game. Even without Evan Mobley available, this game strikes me more as a Donovan Mitchell spot, as he always looks to go off at Madison Square Garden. I’d bet this down to under 26.5 points plus assists.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +265
    (64%)
    7-4 in Last 11 DAL ATS Picks
    WAS +5.5
    -104
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 21 @ 11:05pm

    Analysis

    Why on earth would Dallas (2-5 away) care about this game on Christmas now having been eliminated from playoff contention (like the Chiefs on Sunday)? Answer: It won't. I'm sitting somewhat injury-prone Dak Prescott the rest of the way if I'm Jerry Jones. I've been to more Super Bowls than he has (at least his team, maybe he went personally to some) in the past 30 years, that's just fact. That's really why I am taking it now just in case the Cowboys start Operation Shutdown early this week. Washington is garbage, but it's the home finale. Half unit simply as I am speculating.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    +473
    (56%)
    35-27-1 in Last 63 NFL ATS Picks
    DAL -6.5
    -116
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 1:51pm

    Analysis

    Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) appears unlikely to play, which would give 39-year-old Josh Johnson the start. He went 5 of 9 for 43 yards with one INT and took a sack after relieving Mariota vs. the Eagles. The Cowboys' injury report is not nearly as bleak; they put up 44 points and 6.6 yards per play in the first meeting with Washington. The Commanders rank 32nd in pass efficiency defense, enabling Dak Prescott and Dallas' offense to take out some frustration. Washington just placed guard Sam Cosmi on IR and left tackle Laremy Tunsil (oblique) might sit out too.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +296
    (56%)
    22-17 in Last 39 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Johnson
    Over 169.5
    -114
    Passing Yards
    Picked: Dec 24 @ 10:35am

    Analysis

    The Commanders are expected to start Josh Johnson at QB due to the injury to Marcus Mariota, and the initial odds on Johnson props don't project a lot of confidence. I don't understand why, as he'll be up against a brutal Cowboys defense. If you pair Washington's QBs together in the previous Dallas game where Jayden Daniels suffered an injury, every QB since Jalen Hurts in Week 1 has thrown for 199 yards against Dallas, and everyone since the first Washington-Dallas meeting in Week 7 has thrown for at least 238 yards, including Hurts, Geno Smith and J.J. McCarthy. Washington has plenty of talent at the receiver position to help Johnson sail over this number.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Silverstein
    Florida Favorite
    DAL -7
    -115
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 24 @ 3:20pm

    Analysis

    Josh Johnson moving into the starting role for the Commanders would be a bigger deal against a better defense, but it would not be surprising to see him having a level of success against these Cowboys. Still, over four quarters, Dallas should be able to pour it on and use the extra possessions they will receive to clear a touchdown. This line is up from opening at 5.5 and should rise further, but I would take the Cowboys at any number lower than 10.

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