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  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    +542
    (63%)
    10-6 in Last 16 NCAAF ATS Picks
    HAWAII +1.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 18 @ 1:08am

    Analysis

    Hawaii’s coaching staff is steady, while Cal’s is unsettled. Timmy Chang has turned Hawaii around, going from three wins in 2022 to 8-4 this season. Against other bowl teams, Hawaii nearly matched its opponents in yardage, while Cal struggled, being outgained by 54 yards per game. Special teams is a big advantage for Hawaii: they convert 95.6% of field goals (Cal just 73.3%) and rank 26th in punting (Cal is 125th). The Rainbow Warriors are better on both lines, rank 3rd in red-zone scoring compared to Cal’s 73rd, and the strength of schedule is closer than you might think. The home team has a +3.6 point differential, while Cal is -4.7. My model has Hawaii winning 62.1% of the time, even without WR Jackson Harris.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +241
    (59%)
    10-7 in Last 17 NCAAF Picks
    HAWAII -1
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 24 @ 2:11pm

    Analysis

    It's a home game for Hawaii, 6-1 SU this season at the bowl venue. It's also a familiar scenario for the Rainbow Warriors, 5-4 outright in this bowl. As for Cal, how the heck is a team with the statistically worst ground game in FBS still playing? The Bears lost by a combined 55 points to San Diego State and Stanford, two opponents that Hawaii handled easily by a combined 38 points. Cal has dropped bowl games SU the past two seasons. It is comforting to have FBS' premier kicker, Kansei Matsuzawa (25 for 26 on field goals) on your side.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +935
    (81%)
    13-3 in Last 16 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    D. Garland
    Under 27.5
    -117
    PTS + AST
    Picked: Dec 24 @ 1:23pm

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. Darius Garland is under this combined line in 10 of 14 games he’s played with Donovan Mitchell this season. The Knicks are tougher on pick and roll scorers (11th fewest points allowed), and also permit the ninth fewest assists per game. Even without Evan Mobley available, this game strikes me more as a Donovan Mitchell spot, as he always looks to go off at Madison Square Garden. I’d bet this down to under 26.5 points plus assists.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +265
    (64%)
    7-4 in Last 11 DAL ATS Picks
    WAS +5.5
    -104
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 21 @ 11:05pm

    Analysis

    Why on earth would Dallas (2-5 away) care about this game on Christmas now having been eliminated from playoff contention (like the Chiefs on Sunday)? Answer: It won't. I'm sitting somewhat injury-prone Dak Prescott the rest of the way if I'm Jerry Jones. I've been to more Super Bowls than he has (at least his team, maybe he went personally to some) in the past 30 years, that's just fact. That's really why I am taking it now just in case the Cowboys start Operation Shutdown early this week. Washington is garbage, but it's the home finale. Half unit simply as I am speculating.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    +473
    (56%)
    35-27-1 in Last 63 NFL ATS Picks
    DAL -6.5
    -116
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 1:51pm

    Analysis

    Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) appears unlikely to play, which would give 39-year-old Josh Johnson the start. He went 5 of 9 for 43 yards with one INT and took a sack after relieving Mariota vs. the Eagles. The Cowboys' injury report is not nearly as bleak; they put up 44 points and 6.6 yards per play in the first meeting with Washington. The Commanders rank 32nd in pass efficiency defense, enabling Dak Prescott and Dallas' offense to take out some frustration. Washington just placed guard Sam Cosmi on IR and left tackle Laremy Tunsil (oblique) might sit out too.

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