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  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +282
    (71%)
    5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
    TEN +3
    -118
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 22 @ 10:53am

    Analysis

    These two teams are a combined 5-1 over the last three weeks after starting 3-21, and while the Saints have looked like the better team in that stretch, I don't think they deserve to lay a full field goal on the road here. They clearly have no confidence in their healthy RBs after throwing it 50 times and giving Taysom Hill 12 rushing attempts (more than both RBs combined), so if Alvin Kamara continues to sit out, the Titans defense can concentrate on slowing a one-dimensional attack. Cam Ward's two best games came the last two weeks, and the Titans run game has looked great the last three weeks. I'd make this pick 'em.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +478
    (78%)
    7-2 in Last 9 NFL Picks
    CLE +4.5
    -113
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 22 @ 6:05pm

    Analysis

    Pittsburgh escaped by a whisker at Detroit and turns around for another road game against a feisty foe that won't give up. QB Aaron Rodgers will miss his favorite target if WR DK Metcalf's likely suspension is not overturned. Complicating the issue, No. 2 wideout Calvin Austin is uncertain with a hamstring. With Cleveland's Myles Garrett needing one sack to set the league's single-season record, the immobile Rodgers could feel non-stop heat. Six of the Browns' defeats have been by a touchdown or less -- and half of those by four or fewer points. Steelers, beware.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +282
    (71%)
    5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
    JAC -6.5
    -108
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 11:01am

    Analysis

    Philip Rivers has held his own in his return from retirement, but he faded late in the 49ers game and threw a back-breaking pick-six to put the game out of reach. The Colts also couldn't run the ball or get any stops against the 49ers, who didn't punt in the game. This week's matchup could be a similar situation against a Jaguars team with a QB playing out of his mind and a strong rush defense that gave Jonathan Taylor fits in the first meeting. The Jaguars have scored 25+ in eight straight since the bye, and the Colts secondary should be no match for Jacksonville's depth at receiver. I could see the Jags getting to 40 in this one.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +282
    (71%)
    5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
    NE -12.5
    -115
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 11:27am

    Analysis

    The Patriots have everything to play for as they chase the 1 seed, and I expect them to come out hot offensively against a Jets defense that has allowed 34 to Miami, 48 to Jacksonville and 29 to New Orleans the last three weeks. By contrast, the Jets couldn't move the ball against the Saints and Brady Cook is already confirmed to start this game. It feels like only Jets special teams wins are going to help them cover here. I'm not worried about this being a divisional game, as road teams laying 12.5 or more are 16-9 ATS in divisional matchups since 1997.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    Super Stat Geek
    New England
    Over 27.5
    -113
    Away Team Total
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 11:43am

    Analysis

    I'm going to double-dip on this team this week, as I see this is a great number to play against a Jets team that has given up 34 to the Dolphins and 29 to a Saints team that threw the ball 50 times and make Taysom Hill its featured runner. Since starting 1-2, the Patriots have averaged more than 29 points per game, and the emphasis should be on getting out to a hot start in this game and putting up points early, so I also like playing a first-half team total.

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