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  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    +2563
    (61%)
    74-47 in Last 121 MLB Picks
    PHI -1.5
    +147
    Spread
    Picked: Sep 25 @ 12:26am

    Analysis

    Philadelphia has everything to play for this weekend while Tampa Bay does not. The Phillies hold a two game lead over the Diamondbacks for the final National League Wild Card berth but don't have the tiebreaker if the two teams end up even. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has clinched home field advantage in the American League and just needs to stay healthy this weekend before nearly a week break to the ALDS. Cristopher Sanchez, who is 12-2 with a 2.21 ERA in home starts for the Phillies, gets the ball in the opener. Not only is he great at Citizens Bank Park, but Sanchez has held the Rays to a lifetime .132 average against him. I think the home team wins by daylight on Friday night.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    +83
    (57%)
    4-3 in Last 7 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    K. Schwarber
    Over 0.5
    +160
    RBI
    Picked: Sep 25 @ 12:47am

    Analysis

    This one is a gut feeling play for me. Kyle Schwarber is stuck on 95 RBIs and is five short of his fourth consecutive 100+ RBI season. The Phillies' leadoff hitter has now gone eight straight games without driving in a run and I think that changes on Friday night against Freddy Peralta and the Rays. Schwarber has four hits lifetime against Peralta in 17 at bats, with three of them being solo home runs. With Philadelphia aiming to clinch a Wild Card berth, Schwarber is also aiming to win a home run title, of which he's tied at 45 with future NL MVP, Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs. I think the Phillies slugger makes noise and cashes this plus-money play on Friday night.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #2
    +2435
    (60%)
    129-86 in Last 215 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Jobe
    Over 5.5
    +124
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Sep 25 @ 8:38am

    Analysis

    FanDuel. With 24 strikeouts over his last three games, this spot has some value tonight. Jackson Jobe has tightened up his curveball (essentially from a knuckle curve to your standard curve) which has lead to a bump in his called plus swinging strike metrics. The curve plays better to lefties, which works well against the southpaw heavy Pirates. Pittsburgh as is has been strikeout prone all season with a 23% K% against righties - virtually the same rate it’s been over the last two weeks.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    +346
    (60%)
    26-17 in Last 43 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    T. Rogers
    Over 5.5
    -159
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    LOSS
    Picked: Sep 25 @ 9:32am

    Analysis

    Trevor Rogers should be able to get into the 6th inning if not further tonight, being this is his final start of the year, the O's are out of the playoff race, and he is a veteran who is becoming a free agent. His innings are over 165 but he should have enough in the tank to get deeper into this game. The outs line is 17.5/18.5 so the market thinks he gets some run as well. He's improved the strikeout stuff vs. righties over the last month by a large margin, with a 33% K rate and nearly 14% swinging strike rate. I like the 7,8,9 Ks ladder more but over 5.5 straight still has some value as I'd make it -200 or worse.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #2
    +360
    (78%)
    7-2 in Last 9 NCAAF ATS Picks
    TEMPLE +3.5
    -120
    Spread
    LOSS
    Picked: Sep 25 @ 10:54am

    Analysis

    Want to be clear: Don't mess around when it comes to money. That said, sometimes I do throw a half-unit down because it's the only game on the slate or the like. Those 11 am ET college hoops games for an example. I wondered why the heck this game was to kick at 4 ET but our awesome Discord folks told me. And I will admit had to bet this when I found out why: AC/DC is playing in Philly this weekend so had to clear the field. That is so great -- "I'm on the highway to hell!" -- that I had to play something. Our model has Army by a point, but I probably wouldn't play this sans the hook.

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