The good news about drafting from the fifth spot in the draft is that you're either going to get one of the top five wide receivers or one of the top three running backs. We see a tier break at both positions after those players, so you'll be starting with an advantage on a majority of the league at at least one position. The bad news about drafting from the fifth spot is what happens in Round 2.
When you look at our consensus rankings, there are only 17 players who rank in the top 24 for all three of Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and me. That highlights that there are plenty of warts to be found outside of the first round and a half. If elite quarterbacks and/or tight ends go earlier than we think they should, then you may catch a break, but prepared to make a difficult choice.
Here's my squad from the fifth pick:
1.05: Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
2.08: James Cook, RB, BUF
3.05: Mike Evans, WR, TB
4.08: Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
5:05: Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
6.08: Marquise Brown, WR, KC
7.05 Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
8.08: Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
9.05: Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
10.08: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
11.05: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JAC
12.08: Jaylen Wright, RB, MIA
13.05: Darnell Mooney, WR, ATL
14.08: Jalen McMillan, WR, TB
I was thrilled with the balanced start of this draft, landing two of my top seven running backs, two of my top 16 wide receivers, and my number four tight end. Looking back on it, I am not quite as confident I did as good a job with the next five picks. Marquise Brown and Courtland Sutton would be a very strong duo to combine for WR3 production in a Bestball league, but choosing which one to start on a weekly basis could be frustrating because both have a boom-or-bust profile. If Xavier Worthy takes a while to develop or Rashee Rice is suspended, then Brown will be more reliable than I am projecting.
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The two running backs I took in this range, Javonte Williams and Ezekiel Elliott are both players who I project as starters, both used to be drafted much higher, and everyone else seems a lot more worried about both than I am. Williams in particular has plenty of upside in Sean Payton's offense despite a summer's worth of speculation that he might be on the roster bubble.
In the final third of the draft, I focused on upside with three rookies, including first-round draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. It was a slow start to camp for Thomas, but he's exactly the type of player I want to be patient with when I draft him. Gabe Davis is the only outside wide receiver ahead of Thomas, so even if Christian Kirk and Evan Engram soak up most of the targets, there's an excellent chance the rookie is the best big-play threat and red zone target for Trevor Lawrence when it matters. As disappointing as Calvin Ridley was last year, imagine if we get that guy in the second half at a Round 11 price tag. I didn't draft a backup QB because Dak Prescott is perfectly fine. He doesn't give me an edge at the position, but I don't expect many people will have one on me either.
I have Andrews, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, and Trey McBride all ranked between 34th and 39th overall. So I was thrilled that both McBride and Andrews were there in Round 4. Because I also valued Tee Higgins as a strong value, I rolled the dice so that one of the tight ends would come back to me. Andrews did. He played nine full games last year and his 17-game pace was 81 catches for 984 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he stays healthy this year, this team is going to put up some enormous numbers.
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Last year in this exercise I took James Cook in Round 7. That worked out great. While I project Cook as a Round 2 pick and a top-10 running back, there is some risk of drafting a running back this close to his upside, especially when he's never scored more than two rushing touchdowns in a season. If I regret it, it will probably be because I started my draft with two running backs and missed out on some breakout wide receivers.
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Playing off what I said about the James Cook pick, the result of starting RB-RB is that you're not going to get a consensus top-12 wide receiver. My WR1 is Mike Evans, who is a top-12 receiver in my rankings but not most. If Evans repeats his WR1 season from last year, then I will have a pair of top-10 running backs, a top-four tight end, and no real weakness at wide receiver. if his performance falls off at Age 31, I may not have a top-20 receiver on the roster.
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