There are roughly 19 running backs that I feel confident in drafting this season as starters. If Jonathon Brooks (knee) is cleared for training camp, that number will be 20. But it's a limited group at the start of the season.
In my rankings, the running backs from No. 20-27 are Brooks, D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, James Conner, Zack Moss and Aaron Jones. This is a polarizing group with plenty of upside but also a lot of potential to fail.
It's not a group of running backs you want to invest heavily in, which is why I'm surprised where Jones is being selected based on the early CBS Sports average draft position data. He's No. 20 with an ADP of 65.4. And that makes him a bust candidate for this season even with his move from Green Bay to Minnesota.
The last time we saw Jones in a Packers uniform was at the end of an impressive five-game run through the NFL playoffs. From Week 16 through the divisional round of the playoffs, Jones was on fire, with five games in a row of at least 108 rushing yards, and he scored at least 13 PPR points in each outing.
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But Jones struggled with injuries for most of the 2023 campaign, and for me, that's hard to forget. He missed the majority of the first five weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury, and then he missed Weeks 12-14 while dealing with a sprained MCL.
At 29 (he turns 30 in December), Jones' best production could be behind him. With the Vikings, Jones will likely share touches with Ty Chandler, and we'll see how this backfield works together, as well as who the quarterback is out of J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold.
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Age and durability are reasonable concerns for Jones, and the earliest I would draft him this season is Round 7 in all leagues. Now, let's see some other players I'm avoiding based on their early ADP.
Quarterbacks
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Only one quarterback is listed for this version of busts, and Allen being here is mostly about the expectations for him, not necessarily his early CBS Sports ADP (34.4). I don't mind that value, and he's the No. 2 quarterback drafted behind Jalen Hurts. But I'm expecting the actual ADP for Allen to put him in Round 1, and he will likely be the first quarterback drafted in most leagues. Most other publications have Allen as the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, and our SportsLine projections also have Allen first. But I'm worried that the loss of Stefon Diggs (and even Gabe Davis) will limit Allen's upside, especially with the replacement options being a rookie in Keon Coleman and a mid-tier veteran in Curtis Samuel. While I love guys like Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and James Cook, I wonder if Allen has enough weapons in the passing game to perform at a higher level than Patrick Mahomes, Hurts or potentially Lamar Jackson. And yes, Allen will be a stud on the ground, but is he scoring a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns again like he did in 2023? Or is he closer to the 7.6 rushing touchdowns he averaged in the first five seasons of his career? I'd lean toward the latter. I still value Allen as an elite Fantasy quarterback. But don't draft him first at the position, and he shouldn't be selected in Round 1.
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Running Backs
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Mostert was a surprise star in 2023 when he averaged 17.9 PPR points per game, which was fourth among running backs behind only Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams and Alvin Kamara. Mostert led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18, and he tied McCaffrey for the league lead in total touchdowns with 21. But you shouldn't be chasing that production this year, and it feels like that's the case with Mostert's early CBS Sports ADP (67.8), which makes him the No. 21 running back off the board. We know De'Von Achane is going to have a big presence in Miami's backfield, and the Dolphins added another running back with elite speed in rookie fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright. Mostert is also 32, which is AARP years for an NFL running back, and at some point Father Time will come calling. I'm fine with Mostert as a flex, but the earliest I would draft him is in Round 8 in most leagues.
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If I can draft Conner as a flex this season then I'm thrilled about it, but his early CBS Sports ADP (68.3) makes him the No. 22 running back off the board, which is too rich for me. He's 29, and he's potentially facing significant competition for touches in third-round rookie Trey Benson. Conner also has missed at least three games in five of his past six seasons, which you have to factor in when drafting him. When healthy, he's been great, and he just had the first 1,000-yard season of his career in 2023 (1,040), while also setting a career-high in yards per carry (5.0). But he also saw the fewest targets (33) and catches (27 and 2.1 per game) since he was a barely used rookie with Pittsburgh in 2017. We hope he's not becoming a Fantasy running back who is reliant on his rushing production alone, and Benson could impact those stats as well. The earliest I would draft Conner is Round 7 in most leagues.
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I'm not sure where Chubb's ADP will end up in August, and right now he's the No. 31 running back off the board at 88.6. I probably won't draft Chubb this year as anything more than a No. 4 running back in the majority of leagues. Chubb has been one of the best Fantasy running backs for most of his career, but he's coming off a devastating knee injury in Week 2 last season at Pittsburgh. Chubb had surgery in September to repair the meniscus and MCL in his left knee, and then he had a second surgery in November on his ACL. We don't know if he'll be ready for training camp or even Week 1, and Chubb could be a candidate to open the season on the PUP list. Jerome Ford should have a prominent role whether Chubb is healthy or not, and the Browns also added D'Onta Foreman this offseason. And Chubb is 28 (29 in December), so age could be a factor in his recovery. I hope Chubb proves me wrong and returns to form with his knee, but I'm not excited about Chubb's Fantasy outlook in 2024.
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I'm surprised to see some analysts still value Williams as a No. 2 Fantasy running back, and his early CBS Sports ADP (86.3) makes him the No. 28 running back off the board. That value isn't terrible, but Williams will likely continue to slide if he remains with the Broncos this year. Now, there's a chance that Denver could trade Williams, which would be tremendous for his Fantasy outlook, but this is suddenly a crowded backfield after the Broncos brought in two rookies in Audric Estime and Blake Watson. Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine also remain on the roster, and those four running backs were all added to the backfield in the past two years by Sean Payton, who inherited Williams when he became the head coach prior to 2023. Williams is still likely the most talented running back in Denver, and hopefully being two years removed from the ACL tear he suffered in 2022 is a positive. But McLaughlin has earned rave reviews this offseason by the coaching staff and media, leading to a potential increased role. At best, you should view Williams as a flex option in the majority of leagues, but don't draft him as a starter if he's still in Denver before Week 1.
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Wide Receivers
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I had Adams as a bust last season, and he averaged 15.6 PPR points per game, which was his lowest total since 2017. I was nervous about him turning 30, his quarterback situation and some unrealistic expectations for Fantasy managers, who were still drafting Adams in Round 1. I have a lot of those same concerns this season and the earliest I would draft Adams in Round 3 since he's 31 and potentially on the decline. We don't know who will end up as the starting quarterback for the Raiders out of Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew, and Las Vegas added another pass catcher in the NFL Draft with first-round rookie tight end Brock Bowers joining Adams and Jakobi Meyers. We could see a downturn in targets for Adams, who has 355 targets in two years with the Raiders. Adams did OK with O'Connell down the stretch last year and averaged 18.2 PPR points per game in the final five outings of the season, which included a stinker in Week 16 at Kansas City (1.4 PPR points). But like I said last season, I think Adams will be an excellent Fantasy receiver. I just don't consider him among the elite guys anymore, and I don't want to reach for him on Draft Day.
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Evans is being drafted as the last pick in Round 2 based on his early CBS Sports ADP, and that's too soon. I'm worried his production will fall off this season after a tremendous year in 2023. He finished as the No. 10 receiver at 16.6 PPR points per game, and he continued his impressive streak of reaching 1,000 receiving yards for 10 years in a row. He also had his most catches (79), yards (1,255) and targets (136) since 2018 while tying for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (13). But he'll be 31 in August, and we could see Tampa Bay lean more on Chris Godwin this year, as well as the addition of talented rookie Jalen McMillan. Godwin became more of a focal point in the offense in the final five games of 2023 and had 45 targets to 33 for Evans over that span. If that continues then Evans could be in trouble, and I don't like the idea of drafting him as the No. 12 Fantasy receiver this year.
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I'm going to include Keenan Allen here as well, and I'm worried about the outlook for both Bears receivers this season. Start with Moore, who has an early CBS Sports ADP (32.3) as the No. 15 receiver off the board. That would be great if his situation was the same as last year when he had little competition for targets and averaged a career-best 16.9 PPR points per game. But now Allen and first-round rookie Rome Odunze are in Chicago, and Moore could struggle to even get the 136 targets he saw in 2023. I still have Moore ranked the highest of the Bears talented trio, but the earliest I would draft him is Round 4. Allen's early CBS Sports ADP (76.6) is also too rich for me, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 8. He has earned at least 136 targets in six of the past seven seasons with the Chargers, and last year he led all receivers at 11.5 targets per game. No way that happens again if Moore and Odunze stay healthy, and Allen just turned 32. The best value of Chicago's receivers is Odunze (103.8), and I would rather target him at that cost than reach for Moore or Allen.
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I would like to invest in Flowers this season. He should have a solid sophomore campaign, and he might be the best pass-catcher in Baltimore this season, ahead of Mark Andrews, based on how Flowers finished as a rookie in 2023. But his early CBS Sports ADP is too expensive (48.6) as the No. 23 receiver off the board. The earliest I would draft Flowers is the back end of Round 5. Last year, Flowers averaged 12.8 PPR points per game, but the best stretch of his production came with Andrews (ankle) sidelined toward the end of the season. Flowers scored at least 19.6 PPR points in four of his final five games of the regular season, including catching four of his five touchdowns over that span. Andrews is back at 100 percent, but Flowers does benefit with Odell Beckham Jr. (Miami) gone, opening up 64 targets. And the addition of Derrick Henry should make things better in the passing game with defenses trying to stop the run. That said, I don't want to reach for Flowers on Draft Day, and his early ADP is too high.
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Cooper turned 30 in June, so we'll see if he can remain productive again in 2024 without much drop-off. He was solid last season, averaging 15.1 PPR points per game, and he set a career-high with 1,250 receiving yards in 15 games. Cooper played well with Deshaun Watson, who should be ready for Week 1 following last season's shoulder injury. In five full games with Watson, Cooper averaged 17.6 PPR points, and he averaged 7.8 targets per outing. But the Browns receiving corps is loaded this season following the addition of Jerry Jeudy via trade from Denver. Cooper, Jeudy, Elijah Moore and David Njoku are all playmakers, and hopefully, Watson will keep them happy coming off his injury. I still expect Cooper to be the No. 1 receiver in Cleveland, and his early CBS Sports ADP (55.6) isn't bad. But I hope Fantasy managers don't reach for him sooner than that, and keep an eye on a potential holdout since he's unhappy with his contract situation heading into training camp. I view Cooper as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best this year.
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Tight End
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Njoku had an unbelievable finish in 2023 and scored at least 16.4 PPR points in each of his final four games. That helped a lot of Fantasy managers, myself included, win plenty of playoff games. But he did most of his damage with Joe Flacco under center and not Watson, and that's the concern for Njoku heading into 2024. Watson should return as the Browns starter after being lost for the season with a shoulder injury in Week 10, and Njoku scored 6.8 PPR points or less in three of five games with Watson. I like Njoku as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end entering 2024, but he's someone I would settle for and not target given his production with Watson last year. His early CBS Sports ADP (100.4) makes him the No. 10 tight end off the board, and I would prefer to draft him a little bit later. Keep in mind, the Browns receiving corps got crowded with Jeudy joining Cooper, Moore and Njoku, and I'm worried about Watson supporting all of these guys at a high level, especially since he's coming off the shoulder injury from last year.
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Hockenson finished second among tight ends last season at 14.6 PPR points per game, behind only Travis Kelce (14.63). Hockenson was awesome, but that was before he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee in Week 16. He didn't have surgery to repair the ACL until the end of January, and we don't know if he'll be ready for the start of the season. His health is the biggest hurdle to overcome, but we also have to see who is playing quarterback for the Vikings this season. Kirk Cousins (Atlanta) is gone, and rookie J.J. McCarthy or journeyman Sam Darnold will be the starter in Minnesota. Whoever starts under center for the Vikings also has to support Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, along with Hockenson. As of now, I'm only drafting Hockenson with a late-round pick in all leagues, but his early CBS Sports ADP (106.4) makes him the No. 11 tight end off the board. I'm not expecting him to perform like he did last season coming back from this injury, which makes him someone I will probably avoid this season.
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