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  • expert headshot
    Bruce Marshall
    #5
    +635
    (56%)
    52-41-3 in Last 96 NCAAF Picks
    MINN -1.5
    -110
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Dec 26 @ 1:39am

    Analysis

    It's been an exciting fall for the Lobos under colorful first-year HC Jason Eck, and bowl-eligible for the first time since Bob Davie's days in charge a decade ago. The offense has some balance and QB Jack Layne a knack for making plays. Yet note Mountain West reps are 0-3 SU and vs. the spread in bowls after UNLV's Tuesday loss to Ohio. Plus, here's our chance to ride the nation's hottest bowl streak, with the Gophers winning eight straight in postseason, the last six of those under PJ "King of Minor Bowls" Fleck. There are some portal defections to consider but not QB Drake Lindsey or top RB Darius Taylor, both apparently a go for Phoenix. Play Minnesota (Rate Bowl at Phoenix)
  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    +532
    (61%)
    11-7 in Last 18 NCAAF ATS Picks
    NMEX +2.5
    -110
    Spread
    LOSS
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 1:32pm

    Analysis

    New Mexico’s opponents have a .728 win percentage against fellow bowl teams. The Lobos posted a 4-2 SU record, 5-1 ATS, and finished 3-3 in the stats. Minnesota opponent's win percentage is .545. The Golden Gophers went 1-5 SU, were outgained in four of five games, and had a -141 YPGD. Minnesota went 0-5 on the road, and with the Bowl being played in Arizona, the crowd is expected to strongly favor New Mexico. Jason Eck’s remarkable turnaround at New Mexico has generated significant momentum for the program. The Lobos are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 and have won six straight games. Eager for their 10th win, the Lobos are driven to make a statement by defeating a Big Ten opponent.
  • expert headshot
    Chip Patterson
    +433
    (67%)
    10-5 in Last 15 NCAAF Picks
    MINN -1.5
    -110
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Dec 26 @ 8:54am

    Analysis

    Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota and 18-11-1 against the spread against non-conference opponents. In terms of opt-outs, reports are pointing to both star running back Darius Taylor and defensive end Anthony Smith playing in this game. New Mexico has had a great season under Jason Eck but this is a low line for a Big Ten team with a history of bringing its best in the postseason.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +326
    (60%)
    12-8 in Last 20 NCAAF Picks
    MINN -1.5
    -108
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Dec 26 @ 1:07pm

    Analysis

    Under coach P.J. Fleck, Minnesota is 6-0 SU in bowls. Given that the Gophers generally land in second- and third-tier bowls, the evidence is incontrovertible that the tie-wearing coach knows how to get teams ready for these low-stakes games. New Mexico, picked to finish second-to-last in the Mountain West, was a massive overachiever. The preseason forecast reflects how the Lobos' modest talent is perceived. Minnesota's size advantage on the O-line should allow the Gophers to rev up their rushing game.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +326
    (60%)
    12-8 in Last 20 NCAAF Picks
    Over 42.5
    -115
    Over/Under
    LOSS
    Picked: Dec 26 @ 11:42am

    Analysis

    Historically, this is a bowl game of sky-high scores. (Last year's gem had plenty of points before the half-dozen overtimes). While both teams' profile is defense-first, that includes forcing turnovers, which can lead to scores off short fields. The return of Angel Flores from injury to pair with Joe Labas gives Central Michigan two capable QBs with different styles. MAC teams have scored on Northwestern before, with a 4-4 SU record. The Wildcats can, too, exceed their modest offensive stats in light of CMU allowing 45 points to Pitt and 63 to Michigan in its only games against Power Four opponents.

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