Survey some of the headlines pursuant to the most recent start of Marlins ace Josh Johnson, and you'll find verbs like "pound" and "pummel" and "rock." Those aren't words often associated with ace-level pitching. Indeed, Johnson's 2012 ERA stands at an ugly and uncharacteristic 5.34. So what gives? Generally speaking, he's been unlucky.
Pitchers exercise the most control over three elements of the game: striking out hitters, walking hitters and giving up home runs. In these three regards, Johnson has thrived. To date, he's striking out 7.9 batters per nine and walking 2.8 batters per nine, and he's yet to cough up a homer in 2012. As well, Johnson's inducing ground balls at a high rate thus far.
As for all those batted balls dropping for hits, it's to a significant degree a function of bad luck and the defense playing behind him. That's why, if you look at "fielding-independent pitching" statistics, you'll find that Johnson's 2012 ERA should be 2.15. That's also why the ZiPS forecasting system tabs Johnson for a 2.80 ERA the rest of the way.
While Johnson's line-drive rate is a bit elevated, so is his batting average on balls in play (.436 versus a career average of .302), which should come down as his sample of innings increases. On another level, Johnson has had some notable misfortunes when it comes to stranding runners. There's no reason to believe that's anything but random noise. And, as Michael Barr of FanGraphs has noted, Johnson's average velocity on his fastball and his swing-and-miss rates have generally improved from start to start.
Add it all up, and you have a pitcher who's almost certain to pitch more like his vintage self in the coming weeks, especially as he continues to round into form and add strength after missing 122 games last season with shoulder inflammation.
Coming into this season, a healthy Johnson was regarded as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Despite some grim superficial indicators, there's no reason to revise that opinion.
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