There are so many factors to determine who wins and loses on Sundays in the NFL, but sometimes victory can be determined by a few simple ones.
That might be the case in the NFC Championship game featuring the the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders facing the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles with the division rivals going to battle a third and final time this season to determine who will be the conference's representative in the Super Bowl.
The NFC East foes split the regular-season series with each squad winning at home by one score. Philadelphia won 26-18 in Week 11, and Washington won 36-33 in Week 16 with quarterback Jayden Daniels throwing a game-winning, 9-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Jamison Crowder with six seconds left to play. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts missed the last three quarters of Philadelphia's Week 16 defeat with a concussion.
So what will break the tie and decide the third meeting between these I-95 rivals? Here are three key factors.
1. Saquon Barkley's level of success
Eagles 2024 NFL rushing champion Saquon Barkley is the engine that powers Philadelphia's offense. Barkley totaled 296 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns on 55 carries for an average of 5.4 yards per carry against Washington in those two games. However, in the Week 16 loss to Washington, a game in which Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts exited with a concussion and didn't play the final three quarters, Barkley totaled 41 yards rushing on 22 carries following his exit.
Hurts enters the third matchup of the year with a knee injury after his right leg got rolled up on against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC divisional round, and him no longer being a threat on zone reads or in the run game at all could be game-changing. If the Commanders are able to truly ignore Hurts, who was limited in practice on Wednesday with his knee injury, as a run threat on Sunday, they might have a real shot at limiting the damage from Barkley. That would swing the game.
Jalen Hurts - video suggests concern for knee ligament (PCL) sprain.
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) January 19, 2025
He’s back, and he’ll likely be ok from the pocket.
Expect major mobility limitations#Eagles pic.twitter.com/o3GMkHpRKc
2. Jayden Daniels vs. the Eagles defensive front and blitz packages
How could the Commanders beat the Eagles again, albeit this time on the road in Philadelphia? Washington won 36-33 in Week 16 with Daniels tossing a game-winning, 9-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Jamison Crowder with six seconds left to play. The rookie went off for five passing touchdowns in addition to two interceptions and 258 yards passing on 24 of 39 passing while adding 81 rushing yards on nine carries.
In Washington's Week 16 victory, the Eagles approached Commanders quarterback like an early season rookie by blitzing Daniels on 35.6% of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia's second-highest blitz rate in a game of the 2024 season, including the playoffs.
That game plan failed with Daniels shredding the Eagles' blitz for 173 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions on 10 of his 15 throws while being blitzed. That resulted in a 145.3 passer rating, which was the third highest in an NFL game this season when blitzed on at least 15 throws in a game. Daniels' 145.3 passer rating in that situation in Week 16 trailed only Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford's 152.6 passer rating in Week 11 against the Patriots' blitz on 17 of his throws and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson's 148.9 passer rating in Week 7 versus the Buccaneers' blitz on 15 of his passes.
Will Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio attempt to be as aggressive with his blitz packages in Round 3? Or will he be more content to let his down linemen go to work with defensive tackle Jalen Carter (12 quarterback pressures, tied for the most in the postseason with Rams edge rusher Jared Verse) and edge rusher Nolan Smith (11 quarterback pressures, third most in the postseason) dominating the last two weeks? Fangio's plan vs. Daniels and the counterpunches the rookie and Washington offensive coordinator Kilff Kingsbury utilize will go a long way in determining a victor.
3. The turnover battle
This is obvious, but it's especially true this postseason. All four of the remaining teams in the field -- the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles and Commanders -- have combined for no turnovers and a +15 turnover margin, marking the first conference championship weekend ever with four teams with no turnovers in the postseason. Teams are also 7-0 when winning the turnover battle this postseason, which is the best record entering the conference championship games in the last 15 postseasons.
Both Washington and Philadelphia are two of four teams in playoff history with at least six takeaways and no turnovers in their first two games of a postseason. The other two -- the 1998 Denver Broncos and the 2004 New England Patriots -- both won the Super Bowl. Whichever team's defense can generate that critical first postseason miscue for the opposing offense will likely emerge victorious and head to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX.
