The 2024 MLB All-Star break is in the rear-view mirror and the trade deadline is less than a week away. We're entering the dog days of summer and it won't be long before the postseason races really begin to heat up. Here now are three MLB trends worth knowing as we await the trade deadline activity to begin.
Lugo's expanding arsenal
On Sunday afternoon, Seth Lugo tossed a one-run complete game against an admittedly weak White Sox lineup, and in doing so threw the first nine-inning complete game win by a Royals pitcher since Brad Keller against the Pirates on Sept. 13, 2000. It moved Lugo back atop the MLB ERA leaderboard (2.38) and into a virtual tie atop the MLB pitching WAR leaderboard (4.5).
Lugo threw 103 pitches while carving up the White Sox and he used nine different pitches to do it. Those 103 pitches were broken down into 30 four-seam fastballs, 22 sinkers, 15 sliders, 12 curveballs, seven slurves, five cutters, five splitters, five sweepers, and two changeups. Here is the vertical movement vs. horizontal movement graph:
How do you prepare to face a guy throwing nine -- nine! -- different pitches, almost all with different movement and different velocities? Lugo threw a pitch as slow as 76.8 mph and as fast as 94.3 mph Sunday. He forces you to cover an 18 mph velocity range and all sorts of movement. Yeah, the White Sox are bad, but even a good lineup would've had trouble Sunday.
"My mindset is, we're going to pick a spot for every pitch where it fits," Lugo said after Sunday's complete game (via MLB.com). "Really, each time I get an out or a swing or a guy misses a ball, or he squares it up, that tells me a lot. I get a lot of reactions after contact, guys cussing or yelling at themselves around the bases ... There's a lot that goes into it. I'm always thinking."
Lugo used a wide arsenal with the Padres last season, though nine pitches -- again, nine! -- is pretty new. He introduced the splitter in late April and the four-seamer has become more of a feature pitch over the last month or so. The wide mix is reminiscent of another Royals righty: Zack Greinke. Greinke used seven pitches regularly (and an eighth now and then) later in his career.
At three years and $45 million, Lugo has been the steal of this past offseason's free-agent pitching class. He was a deserving All-Star and is firmly in the AL Cy Young discussion with another two months to play. Lugo's not the prototypical blow-you-away ace. He's doing it with an absurdly deep arsenal and by keeping hitters off balance, and the results are certainly ace-like.
Doyle's quiet breakout
At 37-65, the Rockies have been one of the worst teams in baseball this season, and that isn't a surprise. They're short on talent up and down the roster, particularly on the mound, and it won't get any better if trade candidates Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill are moved at the deadline. They have been Colorado's most reliable starters, and not by a small margin either.
There is one under-the-radar positive for the Rockies this year: Brenton Doyle. The second-year center fielder has added above-average offense to his superlative defense. As a rookie last season, Doyle slashed .203/.250/.343 in 431 plate appearances while putting up 19 defensive runs saved and 15 outs above average in center. He was sensational in center field.
The defense is still there this season, but now Doyle owns a .276/.339/.470 slash line, including a .297/.341/.555 line since the admittedly arbitrary date of June 3. Just prior to the All-Star break, he had a torrid eight-game stretch in which he went 15 for 27 (.556) with five doubles and six homers. That put Doyle in some impressive company:
Brenton Doyle is the sixth player to record at least 15 hits, 11 extra-base hits, six home runs, six walks and one stolen base in an eight-game span.
— Rockies Club Information (@RockiesClubInfo) July 10, 2024
The other five are Larry Walker, Reggie Jackson, Willie Mays, Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. pic.twitter.com/ZMGG6I6z1d
To be sure, Doyle has been significantly better at Coors Field (.963 OPS) than on the road (.661 OPS), so it's fair to be skeptical about this being a true breakout. That said, it is worth noting Doyle made swing adjustments over the winter, and in doing so he's cut his ground ball rate from 46.9% in 2023 to 42.5% in 2024 while upping his hard-hit rate from 35.0% to 41.9%.
In addition to better contact, Doyle is also making more contact. He's cut his strikeout rate from 35.0% of his plate appearances last year to 24.6% this year. The 10.4 percentage point improvement is the best among the 135 hitters with at least 300 plate appearances both this year and last. Here are the before and after GIFs. The difference in noticeable:
Doyle is setting up with his hands higher and in a deeper crouch, and he's really leaning into his back leg during his swing. Also, he follows through a bit more fully, for lack of a better term. Last year he cut off his followthrough, which isn't automatically a bad thing, but it doesn't work for everyone. Simply put, there's more force in Doyle's swing this year, hence the uptick in hard-hit rate.
"It's about giving my eyes a little more time to react to pitches," Doyle said about his new swing in spring training (via MLB.com). "And the point right before I get my barrel through the zone, just keeping that a little tighter than I usually do. It helps me stay inside the ball. That's been a big emphasis."
If you're a Rockies fan, Doyle is a reason to have some hope. At minimum, the swing changes say we should pay attention and not assume his production this year is a Coors Field mirage. With his glove, Doyle doesn't have to be much more than an average hitter to be really valuable. If the breakout at the plate is for real, then he's got a chance to be a franchise cornerstone type.
Chourio showing positive signs
Despite only six career games at Triple-A, the Brewers signed top prospect Jackson Chourio to eight-year extension worth $82 million over the winter, and plugged him directly into their Opening Day lineup. It did not go well, initially. Chourio, who turned only 20 in March, slashed .206/.257/.351 with a 32.1% strikeout rate in April. He looked overmatched, which was understandable.
Things have steadily improved over the last few weeks. Chourio is hitting .305/.357/.489 since June 1 and he's both cut down on his strikeouts and increased his line drive rate. These are encouraging trends for a player this young:
Chourio started the season so poorly that his batting line still sits at .253/.301/.399, which is 6% below average once adjusted for ballpark, but that's nothing to be ashamed of. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto, both in 2019, are the only two 20-and-under players in the last 10 years to put up a league-average offensive season while playing enough to qualify for the batting title, like Chourio.
The Brewers have a deep enough lineup that they've had one of the better offenses in baseball (eighth in runs per game) and sit in first place in the NL Central even while letting Chourio go through his growing pains. Not every top prospect hits the ground running. It's a hard sport, and big-league pitchers will dial in on your weaknesses and force you to show you can adjust.
Chourio is beginning to adjust. He's played standout defense all season (eight defensive runs saved and six outs above average), so even when he wasn't contributing at the plate, he was still helping his team. Now Chourio is beginning to figure out this whole hitting thing. He's whiffing less, he's driving the ball, and he's letting his talent really shine.
