Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for June 11: Elly De La Cruz among top bets for Wednesday HR player props
SportsLine's model is up 36.95 units on HR picks in the last 64 days. Use its MLB picks for sportsbook promotions like MLB parlay boosts
By
Ryan Wooden
•
4 min read
Speed might be Elly De La Cruz's most notable asset with 87 stolen bases since the start of last season, but the Reds' shortstop has also regularly showcased power during his three-year MLB career. De La Cruz hit 25 home runs last season, and he's already gone yard 12 times in 2025. There's potential for even more power in his game as he builds on his 6-foot-5, 200-pound frame and cuts out some of the swing-and-miss in his game. Wednesday presents a buy-low opportunity on De La Cruz as the Reds take on the Guardians at 1:10 p.m. ET.
The latest MLB home run odds from BetMGM list De La Cruz at +600, one of the best values in our MLB home run parlay today. First-time users can add in first-bet insurance with the latest BetMGM promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks while helping you dial in your betting strategy.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 36.95 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 64 days after hitting two MLB home run props yesterday. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. Also see the model's top Wednesday MLB parlay picks and Cubs vs. Phillies picks.
Best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, June 11:
- Elly De La Cruz, Reds (+600)
- Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+480)
- Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (+600)
- Parlay these picks for +23788 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)
Elly De La Cruz, Reds (+600)
De La Cruz's walk rate has been climbing over the last three years and his strikeout rate is declining, so the uber-talented 23-year-old is certainly getting more comfortable at the plate with time. The next two elements to fall into place would be his bat-to-ball skills (he hit .298 in four minor-league seasons) and to generate more lift to take advantage of his natural power. Even though that won't happen overnight, he's got more than enough power to play him at these odds on Wednesday.
"Elly has significantly worse splits vs LHPs despite being a switch-hitter, but we still have strong value with his odds all the way up to +600 to hit a HR today. His consensus line is +495, so we are getting value with the price alone," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "Guardians' SP Logan Allen has yet to go past 6 innings, so there's also a chance that Elly faces a right-handed reliever and bats from the left side where he has more power." The model sets De La Cruz's line at +380 to hit a homer on Wednesday.
Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+480)
The No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft was fast-tracked to the majors because of his extraordinarily advanced approach at the plate and his natural power is carrying him through as he adjusts to big-league pitching. Before a brief stint on the IL because of a hip flexor strain, Kurtz had homered in four of five games and you'll want to take advantage of his home run pricing before he settles back in.
"Kurtz is returning from a brief injury, but we have value on this play because our model likes how he was swinging the bat before getting injured. This is his third game back from injury so he should be getting his swing back to where it was," Fetner said. "We set the line at +450 for Kurtz to hit a HR." FanDuel is offering the best price on the rookie and you can potentially add even more value with the latest FanDuel promo code.
Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (+600)
The eight-time MLB all-star isn't quite the offensive threat that he once was, but he's still capable of producing impressive numbers in bursts. Over the last seven days, Arenado has a .960 OPS and he still generally hits left-handed pitching well. On Wednesday, he'll match up with Eric Lauer, who he is 7-for-22 with three home runs against in his career.
"Arenado has several factors that favor him today. He has always been one of the better hitters against LHPs, he is facing a pitcher who he has had a ton of success against, and he is coming off a three-hit game with a HR," Fetner noted. "Arenado's power numbers have been on the decline, but he still has an OPS over .800 against left-handed pitchers." Both FanDuel and DraftKings are offering this price and first-time users can also get 12 $25 bonus bets if their first $5 bet wins with the latest DraftKings promo code.
Where to bet MLB props on Wednesday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Wednesday:
| Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
|---|---|---|
Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets | CBSDYW | |
BetMGM | ||
FanDuel | ||
DraftKings | ||
Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets | No code required | |
Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose | CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 152-78 roll (+2196) on baseball picks. SportsLine's Larry Hartstein is also 11-2-2 (+888) over his last 15 MLB prop picks, and he already has locked in picks for Wednesday.
