A No. 15 seed beating a No. 2 seed in the men's basketball tournament isn't something we see a lot, although it does happen more frequently than a 16 taking down a top seed does. Only two 16 seeds have toppled a No. 1 seed, but 15th-seeded teams have defeated No. 2 seeds 11 times.
Granted, No. 15 seeds have an all-time record of 11-145, so it's still pretty rare, although it has happened three times since 2021. Oral Roberts defeated Ohio State 75-72 in 2021, Saint Peter's shocked Kentucky 85-79 a year later and Princeton upset Arizona 59-55 in the following tournament.
This year, the second-seeded teams are pretty strong. St. John's closed the season on a hot streak, winning nine straight. Alabama is the top-scoring team in the nation and has put up 90 or more points 18 times.
Are any of the No. 2 seeds in danger this year? We break down the matchups and rank which No. 15 seed has the best chance to pull an upset in the NCAA Tournament.
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15 vs. 2 upset rankings
Ordered from least likely to most likely.
4. Omaha over St. John's
St. John's is a tough team for inferior opponents to face. The Red Storm are physical, lock you down defensively, create a lot of turnovers and rebound well. That's a tough ask for a less-talented team.
If Omaha has a chance, it needs to hope St. John's has a cold shooting night. The Red Storm aren't a great perimeter-shooting team, ranking 338th in 3-point percentage.
The problem is, Omaha's defense is awful. The Mavericks rank 252nd in defensive efficiency, despite playing an easier schedule. It looks like a long night for Omaha.
3. Robert Morris over Alabama
There is good news and bad news for Robert Morris. The bad news is, Alabama likely will score at least 90 points in this game. The Crimson Tide accomplished that feat a ridiculous 18 times this season. The good news is that Alabama's defense is so bad, it might give up 90 points as well.
The Colonials have won 10 straight games and finished 18-5 in the Horizon Conference. However, they just don't match up with Alabama's offensive machine. Robert Morris needs a lot to happen to pull off a 15-2 upset.
2. Bryant over Michigan State
Michigan State got a tough draw here. Bryant has some talent and plays at a frenetic pace. The Bulldogs also rebound well, something teams need to do in order to compete with the Spartans.
On the flip side, Michigan State should be able to score at will. Bryant scores fast but gives up points just as quickly. St. John's recorded 99 points against the Bulldogs and Grand Canyon produced 112.
The Spartans should have enough on both sides of the ball, but if Bryant can get its pace and make shots, it can hang around in this game.
1. Wofford over Tennessee
Coming into Selection Sunday, Wofford was a team I thought could be a pain in the backside for a higher seed. I don't love the draw against a rugged Tennessee squad, although this should be a game played at a slow pace with limited possessions.
That could help the Terriers if Tennessee isn't shooting well. Wofford is an excellent rebounding team at both ends of the court and can make shots from the perimeter.
I don't think the Terriers will win outright, but I give them the best chance to pull off an upset of any No. 15 seed, especially if they can slow the game down to a crawl and frustrate the Volunteers early.
