Fantasy Football 2024 Draft ADP (average draft position) review: Trends, players expected to rise & fall, more

Dave Richard dives deep into ADP trends

The easiest forecaster of Fantasy Football drafts is Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP. It's a culmination of drafts done before yours that takes every pick and averages out where each player goes. This gives you the best idea of what to expect not only when you're on the clock, but what to expect with your ensuing draft choices. 

This spring, we realized we had been missing something that we should have had years ago: an offseason ADP. Something that would begin showing Fantasy drafters what to expect even before training camp started and Fantasy drafts would be held in mass quantities. This was something different than our mock drafts with fancy-schmancy Fantasy analysts or even consensus rankings from those you trust. This was a series of mock drafts with die-hard fans of our daily live show, Fantasy Football Today, bringing their knowledge and their desires to one central hub of information. 

Consider this ADP another valid resource point as you prep for drafts. And most importantly, do not forget to check ADP before you start seriously drafting this preseason. You could even compare this ADP to what you see in August and September to realize which players are becoming more popular as well as find values in players who may have slipped.

ADP TRENDS

Trends based off of our ADP through mid-June:

RANK	PLAYER	ADP
1	Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF	1.50
2	CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL	3.00
3	Breece Hall, RB, NYJ	4.25
4	Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA	5.75
5	Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET	6.50
6	Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL	6.88
7	Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN	7.00
8	Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN	7.38
9	Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI	11.12
10	A.J. Brown, WR, PHI	11.38
11	Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND	11.75
12	Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET	13.38
13	Kyren Williams, RB, LAR	13.62
14	Puka Nacua, WR, LAR	15.38
15	Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ	16.38
16	Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI	17.88
17	Travis Etienne, RB, JAC	19.25
18	Derrick Henry, RB, BAL	22.12
19	Drake London, WR, ATL	25.38
20	James Cook, RB, BUF	25.38
21	Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC	25.75
22	Sam LaPorta, TE, DET	26.00
23	Davante Adams, WR, LV	26.25
24	Mike Evans, WR, TB	27.12
25	Nico Collins, WR, HOU	27.50
26	Travis Kelce, TE, KC	28.00
27	Josh Jacobs, RB, GB	28.62
28	Chris Olave, WR, NO	29.62
29	Deebo Samuel, WR, SF	31.25
30	DJ Moore, WR, CHI	32.25
31	Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF	33.75
32	Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI	33.88
33	Josh Allen, QB, BUF	34.38
34	Rachaad White, RB, TB	35.00
35	De'Von Achane, RB, MIA	35.88
36	Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR	38.38
37	Michael Pittman, WR, IND	38.62
38	Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC	40.62
39	Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA	41.50
40	Mark Andrews, TE, BAL	41.62
41	Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL	42.88
42	Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA	43.25
43	Joe Mixon, RB, HOU	43.50
44	DK Metcalf, WR, SEA	43.75
45	DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI	46.50
46	Alvin Kamara, RB, NO	46.75
47	Trey McBride, TE, ARI	47.50
48	Zay Flowers, WR, BAL	48.62
49	Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU	52.88
50	George Pickens, WR, PIT	54.50
51	Amari Cooper, WR, CLE	55.62
52	Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF	55.62
53	Christian Kirk, WR, JAC	57.25
54	Malik Nabers, WR, NYG	58.00
55	C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU	58.62
56	David Montgomery, RB, DET	59.25
57	Tank Dell, WR, HOU	59.38
58	Zamir White, RB, LV	59.88
59	Anthony Richardson, QB, IND	60.62
60	Tee Higgins, WR, CIN	61.00
61	Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL	62.38
62	Joe Burrow, QB, CIN	63.25
63	Calvin Ridley, WR, TEN	64.75
64	George Kittle, TE, SF	64.88
65	Aaron Jones, RB, MIN	65.38
66	Jayden Reed, WR, GB	67.25
67	Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA	67.75
68	James Conner, RB, ARI	68.25
69	Jonathon Brooks, RB, CAR	70.12
70	Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC	72.12
71	D'Andre Swift, RB, CHI	72.50
72	Marquise Brown, WR, KC	72.75
73	Tony Pollard, RB, TEN	72.88
74	Diontae Johnson, WR, CAR	73.14
75	Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS	73.25
76	Najee Harris, RB, PIT	75.25
77	Dak Prescott, QB, DAL	76.00
78	Chris Godwin, WR, TB	76.12
79	Keenan Allen, WR, CHI	76.62
80	Evan Engram, TE, JAC	77.38
81	Zack Moss, RB, CIN	78.12
82	Christian Watson, WR, GB	81.50
83	Jordan Addison, WR, MIN	82.88
84	Jordan Love, QB, GB	84.25
85	Javonte Williams, RB, DEN	86.25
86	Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE	88.25
87	Austin Ekeler, RB, WAS	88.50
88	Nick Chubb, RB, CLE	88.62
89	Brock Bowers, TE, LV	91.00
90	Kyler Murray, QB, ARI	92.12
91	Brian Robinson Jr., RB, WAS	92.75
92	Xavier Worthy, WR, KC	96.12
93	Rashee Rice, WR, KC	98.00
94	DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN	98.50
95	Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN	99.50
96	Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN	99.62
97	Devin Singletary, RB, NYG	99.75
98	David Njoku, TE, CLE	100.38
99	Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS	100.88
100	Trey Benson, RB, ARI	101.62
101	Gus Edwards, RB, LAC	102.12
102	Rome Odunze, WR, CHI	103.75
103	Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT	104.38
104	Keon Coleman, WR, BUF	106.00
105	T.J. Hockenson, TE, MIN	106.38
106	Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA	106.71
107	Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL	108.12
108	Brock Purdy, QB, SF	109.75
109	Blake Corum, RB, LAR	109.75
110	Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL	112.62
111	Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JAC	113.88
112	Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA	114.29
113	J.K. Dobbins, RB, LAC	115.12
114	Jerome Ford, RB, CLE	115.25
115	Chase Brown, RB, CIN	115.62
116	Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF	115.71
117	Jameson Williams, WR, DET	116.25
118	Caleb Williams, QB, CHI	116.62
119	Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA	119.25
120	Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA	120.50
121	Jaylen Wright, RB, MIA	121.00
122	Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS	122.29
123	Justin Herbert, QB, LAC	123.00
124	Curtis Samuel, WR, BUF	123.71
125	Romeo Doubs, WR, GB	126.75
126	Cole Kmet, TE, CHI	128.67
127	Ty Chandler, RB, MIN	129.00
128	Rico Dowdle, RB, DAL	129.62
129	Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU	130.86
130	Antonio Gibson, RB, NE	131.12
131	MarShawn Lloyd, RB, GB	131.75
132	Roman Wilson, WR, PIT	133.83
133	Kendre Miller, RB, NO	134.14
134	Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI	134.88
135	Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, NYG	135.00
136	Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC	135.29
137	Mike Williams, WR, NYJ	136.14
138	Adam Thielen, WR, CAR	136.25
139	Jared Goff, QB, DET	137.29
140	Troy Franklin, WR, DEN	137.43
141	Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV	137.88
142	Adonai Mitchell, WR, IND	138.43
143	Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL	139.17
144	Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAC	140.14
145	Jerry Jeudy, WR, CLE	141.50
146	Xavier Legette, WR, CAR	141.57
147	Rashid Shaheed, WR, NO	141.71
148	Kimani Vidal, RB, LAC	144.00
149	Chuba Hubbard, RB, CAR	144.17
150	Dontayvion Wicks, WR, GB	144.17
151	Audric Estime, RB, DEN	144.50
152	Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR	144.67
153	Josh Palmer, WR, LAC	144.83
154	Jermaine Burton, WR, CIN	145.25
155	Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT	145.29
156	Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ	145.50
157	Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, DEN	145.86
158	Marvin Mims, WR, DEN	146.50
159	Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF	147.29
160	Demario Douglas, WR, NE	148.00
161	Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI	148.67
162	Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI	149.67
163	Luke Musgrave, TE, GB	149.75
164	Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL	150.00
165	Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL	150.00

Two halves to make most teams whole: Seven of the first 12 players in ADP are running backs, and the others are wide receivers. The next 12 ADP spots are almost the same -- six receivers, five rushers and one tight end. This suggests that a big majority of Fantasy managers will begin their drafts with one RB and one WR. Such a move takes away any early pressure to draft for position rather than value, which is crucial. 

Rounds 3-5 are fertile ground to build very good WR depth: The vast amount of receivers along with the trickle of rushers through these picks provide evidence that plenty of drafters will choose Hero-RB (one RB early) as their draft strategy of choice. Knowing how beneficial PPR scoring is for receivers (and tight ends), it makes a lot of sense.

Drafters love the price tag on top-tier tight ends: It's been a few years since we didn't consider a tight end in Round 1. Managers have responded with five going in the first 55 picks (and seven in the first 70 picks), but none with a top-24 pick. Bank on seeing at least half of the teams in your league gravitate toward a tight end before the end of Round 5. 

The word is out on waiting for quarterbacks: We'll see if this holds, but through our offseason ADP we can see that Fantasy managers are not reaching for quarterbacks in one-QB leagues anymore. Two went in Round 3 (Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen), two more in Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson) and two more in Round 5 (C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson). This is probably more about how quarterbacks as a position fared last year and people being nervous about getting them this year than it is the simple idea of supply and demand, but it's a sign that drafters are getting wiser about adding quarterbacks. 

Expect a running back run after Round 5: Our ADP says five rushers went in the Round 6 range, three in the Round 7 range and six in the Round 8 range. Sure seems like drafters will start taking more chances with running backs in these spots. 

Jonathon Brooks won't be the first rookie drafted, but he's the indicator of when rookies will start flying: The Panthers rookie running back has an offseason ADP on 70.1, a late Round 6 pick. He's almost certain to be the third rookie taken after Marvin Harrison (early Round 2) and Malik Nabers (mid-to-late Round 5). Once Brooks goes there, count on five more rookies going in the next 20-to-25 picks. In total, between 9 and 11 rookies should be top-100 choices. 

FIVE PLAYERS ANTICIPATED TO RISE IN ADP BY LABOR DAY

De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins (offseason ADP 35.9): There's a lot of risk in Achane, but a lot of reward too. Between headlines talking him up and the Dolphins offense always in style for Fantasy, the hunch is that multiple people in every draft will have eyes for him closer to 25th overall. 

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals (offseason ADP 61.0): Maybe his ADP hit the skids because he was franchise-tagged, but he's since signed his tender and will play in a contract year in 2024. Managers know to expect around 13 or 14 PPR points per game from him -- players like that rarely are Round 6 picks. 

Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders (offseason ADP 91.0): Two things Fantasy managers love: rookies and values at tight ends. Bowers is the dream child of both and will definitely get a lot of attention with each highlight and headline that espouses a mammoth first year. 

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans (offseason ADP 99.6): The Titans will continue to push that Spears and Tony Pollard are in a committee where neither has specific roles. If so, why not take one half of that presumed committee at a discount? 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (offseason ADP 106.7): We're going to keep seeing and hearing evidence of Seattle's offense sticking with the pass and leaning into its receivers. Smith-Njigba is coming off a bad year but still oozes high-caliber talent. 

FIVE PLAYERS ANTICIPATED TO FALL IN ADP BY LABOR DAY

Kyren Williams, RB, Rams (offseason ADP 13.6): There's already been a lot made of rookie rusher Blake Corum's arrival and immersion into the Rams run game. Williams has quickly become an injury risk and might be drafted too early based on what he did last year when the Rams didn't have any other options at RB. He might even fall to Round 3. 

Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens (offseason ADP 48.6): If we drafted for talent, Flowers would go earlier than this. But he's on a team that added Derrick Henry to its run game, signaling that throwing a lot just isn't in the cards. And once people realize Mark Andrews remains Lamar Jackson's top target, his ADP could slip by a full round. 

Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings (offseason ADP 65.4): Maybe Fantasy managers are reliving his playoff run in their heads and aren't thinking about splitting reps in a pass-first offense in Minnesota. Additionally, Jones is an injury risk. It wouldn't be surprising if he dipped deep into Round 7. 

Jayden Reed, WR, Packers (offseason ADP 67.3): There will be stories about Christian Watson's health and the whole Packers offense being rejuvenated. Don't forget about Reed's invaluable versatility and overall quality game. This is one faller who you should play to buy the dip on. 

Nick Chubb, RB, Browns (offseason ADP 88.6): We know he's been awesome, but his long-term recovery from a gruesome knee injury that included a torn ACL is what matters most to the Browns. They might be delighted to target his return in mid-November but Fantasy managers would detest it. 

THREE PLAYERS WHOSE ADP COULD GO EITHER WAY

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders (offseason ADP 26.2): Not sure anyone would buy that Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew would be what's best for a 31-year-old Adams, but as of last season he still moved exceptionally well and has a stellar track record even without a great QB. I suspect he will be very polarizing, which means if you like him you should expect to get him near his ADP if not a shade lower. 

Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers (offseason ADP 28.6): Jacobs is on a new team with a better offensive line. The track record of lead RBs in Green Bay under Matt LaFleur has been good. Will Fantasy managers start reaching into Round 2 for Jacobs, or could he slide into Round 4 if enough folks think he'll be limited. 

Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (offseason ADP 86.3): If Williams shows up to training camp with a burst in his step then he should be able to earn the main rushing role in Denver ahead of some younger runners. If he doesn't, the Broncos might relegate him to a small role. Fantasy managers will follow along.