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The term "sell-high candidate" implies something in a Fantasy Baseball context. People often read it to mean, "This player isn't good, trade him for anything while you can," but of course, that's an extremely un-nuanced reading. A player can be good and also be a sell-high candidate. It just means they probably aren't as good as they appear in the moment. 

Take Nathan Eovaldi, for example. Very little about his current production screams "sell-high." I mean, sure, his 2.03 ERA isn't backed up by his underlying skills, but his 3.50 xERA is hardly something you need to run from – it's the 25th-best mark among starting pitchers, and with names like Landen Roupp, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Anderson, and JP Sears ahead of him who don't seem particularly likely to sustain that, I don't have much trouble saying that Eovaldi is probably a top-20 starting pitcher for Fantasy right now.

He's done it by reinventing himself as a pitcher, reacting to his lower fastball velocity by simply throwing that pitch less often than ever before – he's down to a 29.6% usage rate with his four-seamer, and with no sinker in his arsenal anymore, he's basically become 70% "secondaries" pitcher. And it's working, with his splitter and curveball both generating tons of whiffs and weak contact, and his cutter supplementing his fastball well enough. 

The other thing that makes it easier to buy into Eovaldi's early-season success than some others is that he almost always gets off to strong starts to the season:

Nathan Eovaldi's first-half ERA

  • 2024: 2.97
  • 2023: 2.83
  • 2022: 3.34
  • 2021: 3.66

Eovaldi's success so far is "real," in that the underlying skill set and track record back it up. This isn't a fluke, Eovaldi is actually this good. 

He's also a sell-high candidate. Because his history tells us that, eventually, he'll stop pitching this well.

The point of stats like xERA – or even the less sophisticated ERA estimators like FIP or xFIP that have been around even longer – is to try to cut through the inherent noise in pitching results and try to identify something approximating a pitcher's "true" talent level. That's the point of the entire advanced stats movement, from Bill James' groundbreaking work nearly 40 years ago right through to the latest research being done online these days. 

But there's something we have to keep in mind with all of these stats: Talent level isn't static. Players make tweaks to their arsenal in response to – or in anticipation of – changes in their underlying talent level, like we're seeing with Eovaldi, whose once-blazing fastball is now roughly average in velocity. Sometimes, guys are just locked in – like Ranger Suarez early last season, who didn't really change his pitch mix and wasn't throwing harder than usual, but was just executing at a high level for a few months. Sometimes, guys are just slumping. 

In Eovaldi's case, for as impressive as he has been in the first half of seasons lately, he has pretty consistently fallen apart in the end:

Nathan Eovaldi's second-half ERA

  • 2024: 4.81
  • 2023: 7.18
  • 2022: 4.91
  • 2021: 3.87

Sometimes, it's an injury that sends Eovaldi's season spiraling, but that wasn't the case last season. He just faded, losing a bit of velocity on his four-seamer and a lot of effectiveness on that and the cutter especially. 

The increased focus on the curveball and splitter in the early going could be designed to avoid that issue this season, and maybe it'll work. But one thing you often see with older pitchers is decreased focus on their fastball until they reach a point where they just can't realistically adjust anymore. I don't think Eovaldi necessarily has that problem right now, but I do wonder what the adjustment will be if and when things go sideways at some point in the future.

Which they almost certainly will. That's just been the way Eovaldi's seasons have gone for the past half-decade. Which creates a world in which, if we were ranking starting pitchers based on how confident I am in their next start, I would probably put Eovaldi in the top 20 right now; but if we're ranking for the rest of the season (as we are), you have to account for some degree of regression from this point.

The biggest question is, how long can he hold on? Can you count on two more excellent months from Eovaldi? Three? At some point, it makes sense to start looking to sell high on Eovaldi, but I'm not sure that point is right now. But if you wait too long and he starts to regress before you've moved him, you run the risk of missing the sell window.

For now, I'm looking to hold Eovaldi but will be looking into some sell-high moves in the next month or so. But it also depends on what the rest of your staff looks like. Eovaldi went late enough in drafts that he might be relatively superfluous to your specific team, to the point where it might make a lot of sense to look at moving him right now for someone like Spencer Strider, who should be more valuable from June through September. 

But attrition hits hard at the starting pitcher position, and moving a healthy, effective starting pitcher is always a risk. Eovaldi seems likely to fall apart at some point, but that's true of most pitchers. If you can't move him for someone you are sure is a difference-maker in the long run, hanging on to Eovaldi makes plenty of sense. You'll have other chances to sell high. Until those opportunities run out. 

H2H Trade Values Chart

RankingPlayerValueEligible
1Aaron Judge48DH-OF
2Shohei Ohtani46DH-SP
3Bobby Witt45SS
4Jose Ramirez413B-DH
5Juan Soto41OF
6Kyle Tucker40OF
7Corbin Carroll37OF
8Francisco Lindor37SS
9Elly De La Cruz37SS
10Fernando Tatis35OF
11Vladimir Guerrero321B-DH
12Bryce Harper301B
13Gunnar Henderson30SS
14Yordan Alvarez28DH-OF
15Julio Rodriguez26OF
16Mookie Betts26OF-SS
17Jarren Duran25OF
18Tarik Skubal25SP
19Zack Wheeler25SP
20Ketel Marte252B-DH
21Paul Skenes25SP
22Austin Riley253B
23Freddie Freeman241B
24Jackson Chourio24OF
25Manny Machado243B-DH
26Matt Olson231B
27Trea Turner23SS
28Jackson Merrill23OF
29Ronald Acuna22OF
30Wyatt Langford21DH-OF
31Rafael Devers213B-DH
32Jose Altuve212B-DH-OF
33Cole Ragans21SP
34Garrett Crochet21SP
35Pete Alonso211B
36Chris Sale21SP
37Marcell Ozuna20DH
38James Wood20DH-OF
39Kyle Schwarber20DH
40Brent Rooker20DH
41Hunter Greene20SP
42Michael King20SP
43Ozzie Albies202B
44Dylan Cease19SP
45Corey Seager19SS
46Framber Valdez19SP
47Max Fried18SP
48Yoshinobu Yamamoto18SP
49Spencer Schwellenbach17SP
50Logan Webb17SP
51Jacob deGrom17SP
52Corbin Burnes17SP
53Teoscar Hernandez17OF
54Seiya Suzuki17DH-OF
55Alex Bregman163B
56Freddy Peralta16SP
57Hunter Brown16SP
58Aaron Nola16SP
59Joe Ryan16SP
60Edwin Diaz16RP
61Spencer Strider16SP
62Pablo Lopez16SP
63Lawrence Butler16OF
64Josh Hader16RP
65Shota Imanaga16SP
66Zac Gallen16SP
67Jesus Luzardo16SP
68Michael Harris16OF
69Mason Miller16RP
70Emmanuel Clase15RP
71William Contreras15C-DH
72Riley Greene15DH-OF
73Anthony Santander15DH-OF
74Kris Bubic15RP-SP
75George Kirby15SP
76Logan Gilbert15SP
77Adley Rutschman15C-DH
78Luis Castillo15SP
79Bryan Woo15SP
80Oneil Cruz15OF-SS
81Willy Adames15SS
82Josh Naylor151B-DH
83Cristopher Sanchez15SP
84Bailey Ober15SP
85Blake Snell15SP
86Andres Munoz15RP
87Christian Yelich15DH-OF
88Junior Caminero153B
89Raisel Iglesias15RP
90Carlos Rodon15SP
91Jack Flaherty15SP
92Cal Raleigh15C-DH
93Ian Happ15OF
94Brandon Nimmo15OF
95Kristian Campbell152B-OF
96Bryce Miller15SP
97Bryan Reynolds15DH-OF
98Steven Kwan15OF
99Sonny Gray15SP
100Tyler Glasnow15SP
101Randy Arozarena15OF
102Christian Walker151B
103Will Smith15C
104Tanner Bibee15SP
105Vinnie Pasquantino151B-DH
106Salvador Perez151B-C-DH
107Cody Bellinger151B-DH-OF
108Nick Pivetta15SP
109Max Meyer15SP
110Seth Lugo15SP
111Robbie Ray15SP
112Matt McLain152B-SS
113Jazz Chisholm152B-3B-OF
114Bo Bichette15SS
115C.J. Abrams15SS
116Shane Baz15SP
117Willson Contreras151B-C-DH
118J.T. Realmuto15C
119MacKenzie Gore15SP
120Adolis Garcia15DH-OF
121Yainer Diaz15C-DH
122Jung Hoo Lee14OF
123Pete Crow-Armstrong14OF
124Royce Lewis143B-DH
125Mike Trout14DH-OF
126Mark Vientos143B
127Eugenio Suarez143B
128Isaac Paredes143B
129Matt Chapman143B
130Dylan Crews14OF
131Tommy Edman142B-OF
132Marcus Semien142B
133Zach Eflin14SP
134Tyler O'Neill14OF
135Nathan Eovaldi13SP
136Jeff Hoffman13RP
137Ryan Helsley12RP
138Robert Suarez12RP
139Tyler Soderstrom111B-OF
140Paul Goldschmidt111B
141Jack Leiter10SP
142Nick Castellanos9OF
143Brenton Doyle9OF
144Dansby Swanson8SS
145Devin Williams8RP
146Jordan Westburg82B-3B-DH
147Nick Lodolo8SP
148Ryan Pepiot8SP
149Grant Holmes8RP-SP
150Jhoan Duran8RP
151Nico Hoerner82B
152Xander Bogaerts82B-SS
153Xavier Edwards8SS
154Zachary Neto8SS
155Kevin Gausman8SP
156Gavin Williams8SP
157Spencer Torkelson81B
158Ben Rice71B-DH
159Luis Arraez71B-2B-DH
160Felix Bautista7RP
161Kodai Senga7SP
162Clay Holmes7RP-SP
163Shea Langeliers6C
164Bryson Stott62B
165Taylor Ward6OF
166Brice Turang62B
167George Springer5DH-OF
168Jorge Polanco52B-3B-DH
169Alec Bohm53B
170Brandon Lowe52B-DH
171Jose Alvarado5RP
172Anthony Volpe5SS
173Trevor Megill5RP
174Luis Robert5OF
175Jackson Holliday52B-SS
176Tanner Houck5SP
177Carlos Correa5SS
178Nolan Arenado53B
179Tanner Scott5RP
180Grayson Rodriguez5SP
181Nick Kurtz51B
182Andres Gimenez52B
183Kyle Manzardo51B-DH
184Sandy Alcantara5SP
185Cedric Mullins5OF
186Jasson Dominguez4OF
187Maikel Garcia42B-3B-OF
188Ezequiel Tovar4SS
189Luis Rengifo42B-3B
190Taj Bradley4SP
191Tyler Stephenson4C
192Logan O'Hoppe4C
193Trevor Story3SS
194Masyn Winn3SS
195Roki Sasaki3SP
196Justin Verlander3SP
197Jacob Wilson3SS
198Ryan Walker3RP
199Jeremy Pena3SS
200Chris Bassitt3SP
201Jose Berrios3SP
202Brandon Pfaadt3SP
203Yusei Kikuchi3SP
204Gleyber Torres32B
205Luis Garcia32B
206Yandy Diaz31B-DH
207Josh Jung33B
208Max Muncy33B
209Mitch Keller3SP
210J.J. Bleday3OF
211Michael Wacha3SP
212Ronel Blanco3SP
213Michael Busch31B
214Austin Hays3DH-OF
215Byron Buxton3OF
216Clarke Schmidt3SP
217Pete Fairbanks3RP
218Nate Lowe31B
219Jeffrey Springs3SP
220Reese Olson3SP
221Bubba Chandler3SP
222Kerry Carpenter3DH-OF
223Spencer Steer31B-DH-OF
224Kenley Jansen3RP

Roto Trade Values Chart

RankingPlayerValueEligible
1Aaron Judge49DH-OF
2Shohei Ohtani48DH-SP
3Bobby Witt47SS
4Kyle Tucker40OF
5Jose Ramirez383B-DH
6Corbin Carroll37OF
7Fernando Tatis34OF
8Elly De La Cruz34SS
9Juan Soto33OF
10Julio Rodriguez33OF
11Francisco Lindor33SS
12Vladimir Guerrero331B-DH
13Jarren Duran33OF
14Yordan Alvarez30DH-OF
15Jackson Chourio30OF
16Bryce Harper291B
17Gunnar Henderson29SS
18Mookie Betts27OF-SS
19Trea Turner26SS
20Tarik Skubal26SP
21Zack Wheeler26SP
22Paul Skenes26SP
23Freddie Freeman261B
24Jackson Merrill25OF
25Austin Riley253B
26Ronald Acuna24OF
27Manny Machado233B-DH
28Rafael Devers233B-DH
29Wyatt Langford23DH-OF
30Matt Olson231B
31Ozzie Albies232B
32Ketel Marte232B-DH
33Cole Ragans23SP
34Marcell Ozuna21DH
35Pete Alonso211B
36Jose Altuve212B-DH-OF
37James Wood21DH-OF
38Oneil Cruz19OF-SS
39Michael Harris19OF
40C.J. Abrams18SS
41Corey Seager18SS
42Brent Rooker18DH
43Kyle Schwarber18DH
44Chris Sale18SP
45Garrett Crochet17SP
46Framber Valdez15SP
47Michael King15SP
48Yoshinobu Yamamoto15SP
49Josh Hader15RP
50Edwin Diaz15RP
51Mason Miller15RP
52Alex Bregman153B
53Emmanuel Clase15RP
54Andres Munoz15RP
55Raisel Iglesias15RP
56Lawrence Butler15OF
57Jacob deGrom15SP
58Max Fried15SP
59Anthony Santander15DH-OF
60Hunter Greene15SP
61Spencer Schwellenbach15SP
62Dylan Cease15SP
63Logan Webb15SP
64Seiya Suzuki15DH-OF
65Brenton Doyle15OF
66Freddy Peralta15SP
67Corbin Burnes15SP
68Ryan Helsley15RP
69Hunter Brown15SP
70Joe Ryan15SP
71Pablo Lopez15SP
72Jhoan Duran15RP
73Jeff Hoffman15RP
74Robert Suarez15RP
75Riley Greene15DH-OF
76Teoscar Hernandez15OF
77Josh Naylor151B-DH
78Junior Caminero153B
79Cristopher Sanchez15SP
80Bryan Woo15SP
81Shota Imanaga15SP
82Jesus Luzardo15SP
83Willy Adames15SS
84Bo Bichette15SS
85George Kirby15SP
86Logan Gilbert15SP
87Zac Gallen15SP
88Spencer Strider15SP
89William Contreras15C-DH
90Adley Rutschman15C-DH
91Jack Flaherty15SP
92Bryce Miller15SP
93Cal Raleigh15C-DH
94Salvador Perez151B-C-DH
95Tanner Bibee15SP
96Aaron Nola15SP
97Yainer Diaz15C-DH
98Bailey Ober15SP
99Kristian Campbell152B-OF
100Bryan Reynolds15DH-OF
101Jordan Westburg152B-3B-DH
102Will Smith15C
103Mike Trout15DH-OF
104Christian Yelich15DH-OF
105Randy Arozarena15OF
106Sonny Gray15SP
107Pete Crow-Armstrong15OF
108Ian Happ15OF
109Blake Snell15SP
110Tyler Glasnow15SP
111Luis Castillo15SP
112Robbie Ray15SP
113MacKenzie Gore15SP
114Max Meyer15SP
115Carlos Rodon15SP
116Nick Pivetta15SP
117Shane Baz15SP
118Christian Walker151B
119Vinnie Pasquantino141B-DH
120Willson Contreras141B-C-DH
121J.T. Realmuto14C
122Matt McLain142B-SS
123Tommy Edman142B-OF
124Brice Turang142B
125Tanner Scott14RP
126Felix Bautista14RP
127Tyler Soderstrom141B-OF
128Cody Bellinger141B-DH-OF
129Steven Kwan14OF
130Mark Vientos133B
131Eugenio Suarez133B
132Royce Lewis133B-DH
133Jazz Chisholm122B-3B-OF
134Luis Robert11OF
135Shea Langeliers11C
136Dylan Crews10OF
137Nathan Eovaldi10SP
138Kris Bubic9RP-SP
139Seth Lugo9SP
140Jasson Dominguez9OF
141Nick Castellanos8OF
142Adolis Garcia8DH-OF
143Dansby Swanson7SS
144Nico Hoerner72B
145Marcus Semien72B
146Matt Chapman73B
147Isaac Paredes73B
148Alec Bohm73B
149Logan O'Hoppe7C
150Kenley Jansen7RP
151Trevor Megill7RP
152Kevin Gausman7SP
153Jose Alvarado7RP
154Pete Fairbanks7RP
155Devin Williams7RP
156Jung Hoo Lee7OF
157Brandon Nimmo7OF
158Zachary Neto7SS
159Xavier Edwards7SS
160Xander Bogaerts72B-SS
161Anthony Volpe7SS
162Bryson Stott72B
163Jorge Polanco72B-3B-DH
164Jackson Holliday72B-SS
165Chris Bassitt7SP
166Kodai Senga6SP
167Luis Garcia62B
168Ben Rice61B-DH
169Spencer Torkelson61B
170Paul Goldschmidt61B
171Nick Kurtz61B
172Luis Arraez61B-2B-DH
173Maikel Garcia62B-3B-OF
174Tyler O'Neill6OF
175Andres Gimenez52B
176Brandon Lowe52B-DH
177Luis Rengifo52B-3B
178Nick Lodolo5SP
179Sandy Alcantara5SP
180Ryan Pepiot5SP
181Cedric Mullins5OF
182Taj Bradley5SP
183Agustin Ramirez5C-DH
184Ivan Herrera5C
185Sean Murphy5C
186Yandy Diaz51B-DH
187Austin Wells5C
188David Bednar5RP
189Kyle Finnegan5RP
190Ryan Walker5RP
191Jeremy Pena5SS
192Carlos Correa4SS
193Byron Buxton4OF
194Wilyer Abreu4OF
195Spencer Steer41B-DH-OF
196George Springer4DH-OF
197Jorge Soler4DH-OF
198Taylor Ward4OF
199Victor Scott II4OF
200Kerry Carpenter4DH-OF
201Heliot Ramos4OF
202Austin Hays4DH-OF
203Jacob Wilson4SS
204Masyn Winn4SS
205Trevor Story4SS
206Geraldo Perdomo4SS
207Ezequiel Tovar3SS
208Lars Nootbaar3OF
209Clay Holmes3RP-SP
210Grant Holmes3RP-SP
211Aroldis Chapman3RP
212Shane McClanahan3SP
213Roki Sasaki3SP
214Gavin Williams3SP
215Spencer Arrighetti3SP
216Yusei Kikuchi3SP
217Zach Eflin3SP
218Dustin May3SP
219Carlos Estevez3RP
220Chris Martin3RP
221Noelvi Marte33B
222Nolan Arenado33B
223Jordan Walker3OF
224Joshua Lowe3OF
225Max Kepler3OF
226Colton Cowser3OF
227Josh Jung33B
228Matthew Liberatore3RP-SP
229Jeffrey Springs3SP
230Ryan Weathers2SP
231Casey Mize2SP
232Brandon Pfaadt2SP
233Jackson Jobe2RP-SP
234Kyle Manzardo21B-DH
235Michael Busch21B
236Jack Leiter2SP
237Tyler Mahle2SP
238Reese Olson2SP
239Mitch Keller2SP
240Grayson Rodriguez2SP
241Tanner Houck2SP
242J.J. Bleday2OF
243Trent Grisham2OF
244Cam Smith23B-OF
245Tyler Stephenson2C
246TJ Friedl2OF
247Bubba Chandler2SP
248Jameson Taillon2SP
249Camilo Doval2RP